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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.