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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter and The Echo of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.